- Military issues 48-hours ultimatum to president Morsi
- Armed forces spokesman: Egypt military doctrine does not permit coup
- Egyptian Presidency Issues statement
- Egypt’s Salafist Nour party calls for snap presidential polls
- Pro-Morsi-Marches reported in Cairo, and other governorates
- Rival Egypt protesters exchange fire in Suez
- Protests continue at presidential, Al-Qobba palaces and Tahrir Square
- In speech, Morsi makes no concessions
- Millions on the streets in Egypt as defiant Morsi addresses nation
- Dozens wounded in clashes at Cairo university
- US State Department denies calling for early Egypt elections
- Social Popular Current reports that a member was shot during a Brotherhood attack
- Egypt’s military ousts Morsi, unveils transitional roadmap
- Military deploys across the country
- Anti-Morsi Rebel campaign calls on Brotherhood’s youth to ‘rejoin the people’
- Gold, silver rise; oil rises on Egypt’s tension
- Islamic TV channels off air, and police arrest crews
- Court upholds verdict sacking Morsi’s PM Qandil; sentences him to prison
- In quotes: World reacts to overthrow of Morsi
- Morsi under guard at Republican Guards Club
- Islamist-led Shura Council in disarray following Morsi ouster
- Stock market halts trading after record gains
- Egypt Islamists call ‘Friday of rejection’ against coup
- Freedom and Justice party cabinet members resign
- Brotherhood leader pledges ‘lives’ to restore Morsi
- Violent clashes after Morsi supporters killed by army fire
- Mansour issues first constitutional declaration constitutional declaration
- Egypt regrets its suspension from the African Union
- Hundreds of Turks in Istanbul stage protest against military coup in Egypt
- Fitch downgraded Egypt’s Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to ‘B-‘ from ‘B’.
- Military reinforcements to be deployed to Sinai
- 12 killed in clashes in Alexandria, bringing nationwide toll to 30
- Egypt premiership still vacant: Presidential media advisor Presidential media advisor
- ‘Revolution is not a coup’: Anti-Morsi Egyptians tell CNN
- Mansour in reconciliation efforts, Brotherhood leaders seek safe exit
- Egyptian businessmen create economic rescue fund
- Hamas urges Cairo to reopen Rafah border crossing
- Security heightened at Defense ministry ahead of protests
- Prosecutor issues arrest warrant for Al-Jazeera director
- Army is preparing for large-scale military operation in Sinai
- Funeral held for Copts killed in Luxor
- Former minister heads to Washington to discuss political situation in Egypt
- Gas pipeline in Sinai explodes
- New Islamic satellite channel to air
A Few Thoughts
New SCAF vs. Old Islamists
It’s hard to absorb all of the events that took place last week in Egypt. Many details have 3yet to be digested. What is certain, though, is that this was the year’s most crucial week, with far-reaching ramifications. Thus far, we only have disputed assessments from inside and outside of Egypt.
Last year, just before the last presidential election, I wrote a piece asking has Egypt finally broken with the myth of the good autocrats? Now, a year later, I’m still asking the same question because Egypt continues to struggle between two forces – the Islamists and the military. Both have clear autocratic tendencies, and both are claiming to be the true guardians of democracy, despite evidence to the contrary.
In 2012, many Egyptians (almost 52%) chose to trust the Muslim Brotherhood. In 2013, the tide has turned, and many have chosen to place their trust in the military. The core question is how has this happened and what are the implications for the future. Ironically, the answer is very simple – the military leadership has reinvented itself, whereas Muslim Brotherhood leaders have not.
There is no doubt that the army commander, General Sissi, has been perceived by the public as a man with an abundance of charisma and leadership skills. Sissi’s success stems from various factors.
1) The leaderless revolution: Egypt had resurrected the spirit of 1919, but without a new Saad Zaglool, and Sissi happily stepped in to fill the vacuum. He portrayed his move to oust Morsi as what Amr Hamzawy described as a “Coup de grâce,” a description that appeal to many Egyptians.
2) Playing it right: Sissi struck a chord by using the buzzwords of “democracy and support,” because he understood that the public does not and will not accept an explicit military role. This was a key element that helped him to achieve public endorsement.
3) Fulfilling promises (at least for now): Within 24 hours, an interim president was sworn in, cancelling Morsi’s much despised constitution, and ousting the unpopular public prosecutor. It does not matter that the military is now running the show from behind, what matters for the public is that there is a civilian face in front.
4) Mixture of arrests and releases: The arrests of many Brotherhood’s figures were clearly aimed to disrupt the Brotherhood’s chain of command, and the early release of some (pending further investigations) was likely aimed to feed to their confusion, while aborting any blame.
5) Allowing peaceful protests: The main congregations of pro-Morsi forces in Nasr city and Giza were not emptied, and both the Supreme Guide of the Muslim Brotherhood and prominent leader El-Erian were allowed to speak freely, even when inciting action against opponents. Their non-reconciliatory speeches, however, have done little to win them the hearts and minds of the wider public. It is true that the military shot dead four unarmed Islamists protestors, a grave mistake that could easily turn the tide against them, but the later march of some Muslim Brotherhood supporters to Tahrir Square and the deadly clashes that ensued have again proven fatal to the Brotherhood’s image.
6) No curfew (yet): Despite the violence, Sissi has resisted the temptation to declare any military measures, thereby adding fodder to the dispute over the nature of the “coup.”
Meanwhile, the Brotherhood has continued using the same approach that they have been using for the last 60 years – a victimhood mentality. Highly charged statements, accusations of conspiracies, playing with emotions, and claiming to be the representative of Islam are all among the Brotherhood’s favorite cards. This is all without even mentioning the fatwa by their scholar Qaradawi that supports their “legitimacy,” which is a must for every Muslim.
Currently, the Brotherhood has several goals. 1) Prevent fragmentations: it is the Brotherhood’s worst nightmare for their members to start reflecting on events or asking questions; therefore, it is important to keep loyalists saturated with emotion and in a permanent state of anger. 2) They aim to raise the stakes in any behind-the-scenes negotiations. They want fear of bloodshed to be their bargaining power in the negotiations for survival. 3) Underground violent resistance? There is a fear in Egypt of the Brotherhood staging a defection campaign among the army ranks, and creation of a Syrian version of a free Syrian army. Watching one report from Aljazeera Mubasher has convinced me that it is a valid fear. I doubt they will succeed, but the army is now stretched with its forces spread around Egypt, and is vulnerable to potential terrorist attacks.
Thus far, no one from the Brotherhood has posed the important question: why has the Egyptian public chosen to place more trust in the army than in the Islamists? It is easy to label the public as “dumb fools.” It is harder to admit failure. The failure of the Brotherhood to sense how the military has reinvented themselves, and change tactics could cost them a hefty political price.
Other Islamists are not necessarily smarter than the Brotherhood. Yes, some like Nageh Ibrahim, an ex-Jihadi, have openly admitted that the Islamists committed many grave mistakes, however, the Salafi Nour party, which was praised by many for approving the military move has again shown shortsightedness by rejecting Nobel Laureate Mohamed ElBaradei as interim Prime Minister. Actually, this is a dead-end job without much influence in writing the future constitution or shaping Egypt’s future. Their rejection reflects a party on the edge, eager to achieve early short-term gains, all the while worrying about the loyalties of their cadres.
As funerals of victims continue around Egypt, it becomes blatantly clear that the country is still being held hostage by many old guards who are neither able to defeat nor capable of reconciling with each other. The “new” army has the upper hand for now, against the “old,” sulky Islamists, but questions remain; for how long and at what price?
- The lead-up to Egypt army’s Monday statement: A timeline
- The rise and fall of an Egyptian president
- Egypt’s new interim president: Judge Adli Mansour
- Egypt’s coup is the first in 2013, as takeovers become less common worldwide
- Islamists turn violent after Morsi’s fall
- With Morsi’s ouster, time for a new US policy toward Egypt
- The winners and losers in Egypt’s coup
- The demons in Egypt
- Coup in Egypt strategic loss for Erdogan
Plus Video of a 12 years old Egyptian explaining events in Egypt
Finally, here are Jayson Casper‘s prayers for Egypt
Reblogged this on Ned Hamson Second Line View of the News.