Egyptian Aak: Week 25. Will The Brotherhood Survive June30?


Main Headlines

 Monday

Tuesday

 Wednesday

Thursday

 Friday

 Saturday

Sunday

  • El-Sisi: Military gives Egypt’s political powers a week to reconcile
  • Egypt’s court: Muslim Brotherhood members planned jailbreak
  • Brotherhood calls for “unconditional dialogue” dialogue with opposition
  • Salafist Nour party HQ in Mahalla torched over night. Arabic
  • Jama’a al-Islamiya member killed in political spat in Gharbyia
  • Egyptian Sunni Muslims kill 4 Shiites, charging they were spreading their faith

A few thoughts

 Will the Brotherhood survive June 30?

 It is not easy to read the political scene in Egypt. It is even harder to reach conclusions and predict future outcomes. June 30 is like the finale of a major competition;  players are completing their final preparations and the crowd is excited.

President Morsi rebuts calls for his ouster, his party the Muslim Brotherhood is defiant, and together with some other Islamic parties organized a massive rally on Friday as a display of confidence and popularity. It is not easy to understand the thinking process of the Brotherhood and whether they are truly confident or they are just putting on a brave face. It is safe to assume they are apprehensive about June 30, and the Friday rally was probably aimed as a message of reassurance to their core supporters more than the rest of Egypt. It is also safe to assume that there is a certain degree of confidence inside the Brotherhood’s top leadership. Why? For many reasons:

1)   No good record of successful revolutions: Most Brotherhood members are fond of history ____ in a selective way ____ and one of the most appealing facts in the Brotherhood psyche is Egypt’s long history of autocracy; revolts and uprisings have occurred throughout Egypt’s 7000-year history, and few materialized into successful outcomes. The wide gap between each revolt is also a reassuring factor. Egypt has no record of two successful revolutions within a short period of three years.

2)   Deep-seated contempt toward opponents: Rivalry in Egypt is not between two political camps, but between two completely different visions, which are almost impossible to converge. There are cultural and social reasons that complicate the current political mess. The Islamist resentment of Egypt’s leftists and semi-liberal elite is as old as Egypt’s contemporary history. They view these elite as intoxicated with various western ideas that impede the Islamic project and prevent its success. Therefore, they should be “eradicated,” rather than tolerated.

 3)    Overdose of democracy: As the president’s assistant Pakinam el-Shraqawi has said, “Egypt has an overdose of democracy.” This opinion fits in with the Islamist vision, which I have written about earlier. In other words, democracy should come with caveats. From their perspective, Egyptians have gone wild and must be restrained. It is no coincidence that the slogan of Friday’s mass rally was, “No to violence.” This is not a demand, but a pre-condition that could in their view justify a crackdown and massive arrests on June 30. The Brotherhood fully understands that the ongoing low-simmer violence will not be easy to control. Many youth are angry and despite calls for peaceful protests, some may find it difficult to cope with provocations. Yet the Brotherhood demands no less than perfection from the opposition.

4)   A final blow to the opposition:  Rather than fearing June 30, the Brotherhood sees it as an opportunity to develop a final blow to their weak and divided opponents. For them, June 30 is a gladiator match, a chance to deliver a final blow to the opposition. A defeat for the opposition would be the political equivalent of 1967 military defeat that will take years for any sort of non-Islamist recovery.

 5)   Neutralize third parties:  The Brotherhood probably interprets ____ as many Egyptians did ____ the recent speech of the U.S. ambassador in Cairo Anne Patterson, in which she expressed doubt about June 30, as indicating that the U.S. will not exert any pressure on Morsi’s government to provide concessions to the opposition. They may also safely predict that it is highly unlikely that the army in Egypt, which is seen as supported and equipped by the U.S., will embark on any adventure to overturn Morsi without an American nod. It is worth mentioning that John Kerry is expected to visit Egypt on June25, and it will be interesting to see the outcome of his visit.

 6)   Faith: The Brotherhood has never updated their curriculum. Their teaching manual ___ systematically used for 80 years ___ tells them that they are right, that they were never given a proper chance, that it is not their fault, and that they will eventually be victorious. How can anyone convince them otherwise?

 Mohamed Fouad may be right; the revolutionary mode may not be sustainable, and the outcome of June30 may be doom and gloom. However, the irresponsible attitude of Egypt’s ruling party is what led to the current explosive situation, and it is too late to reverse course. The Brotherhood thinks that history, important players, and most importantly the almighty, are all on their side. So why should they care about the people? The move to Moqattam, a hill overlooking Cairo seems to feed into their apparent disengagement from the public. Seeing Egypt from above can be very deceiving. They may be correct on some points, dislodging regimes in Egypt has never been an easy task, but their view of June 30 is wrong. This is not a new revolution, but a continuation of an unfinished revolution. They are also wrong about the new generation of Egyptians. While the passion may be the same as previous generations, this new generation is more stubborn, and submission is not part of the generation X manual. The Brotherhood may survive June 30, but Egypt, as we know it, may pay a hefty price for their survival.

Post Script:

The timing and the tune of El-Sissi’s statement is very interesting. He phrase it in such a clever way that makes both sides interpret it differently, however, it could be the wake-up call that the revisionists in Al-Moqattam desperately need.

Good Report

Good Read

Video

Egypt’s Bassem Youssef hosts Jon Stewart

Finally, here are Jayson Casper‘s prayers for Egypt

About nervana111

Doctor, blogger and Commentator on Middle East issues. The only practising doctor who write in Middle Eastern politics in UK.
This entry was posted in Diary of Aak, Egypt, June30 and tagged , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to Egyptian Aak: Week 25. Will The Brotherhood Survive June30?

  1. nedhamson says:

    Reblogged this on Ned Hamson Second Line View of the News and commented:
    No real unity among opposition or clear alternative makes it doubtful that a new revolution will take place but relying on Egypt’s past to foretell future is a real mistake for Brotherhood – all the rules can be changed now, it depends if the young can come together for freedom. jobs, end corruption, competency and security…

    Like

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