Is Something Rotten In Ankara’s Mayoral Election? A Very Preliminary Statistical Analysis

This is a very interesting piece about Turkey’s local election by Erik Meyersson. I think it is definitely worth reading

Erik Meyersson

Having today seen tweets on numerous alleged voting irregularities in Turkey and thanks to Twitter user @erenyanik I came across this CHP/STS dataset of voting data in the Greater Municipality of Ankara, one of the tightly contested (less than a percentage point in the vote share) mayor elections between Melih Gökçek and Mansur Yavaş. The dataset includes 12,230 ballot boxes across 1,682 voting locations in 25 districts in Ankara. I didn’t collect the data itself and therefore this analysis should be taken as highly preliminary.

It all started when @erenyanik posted this picture plotting ballot box level AKP and CHP vote shares against the turnout rate for the Ankara mayor race. Several of the ballot boxes revealed turnout rates above 100 percent, which is strange, but also that these tended to systematically favor the AKP.

I decided to create a couple of graphs myself, and per request am now typing this very basic analysis up.

View original post 853 more words

About nervana111

Doctor, blogger and Commentator on Middle East issues. The only practising doctor who write in Middle Eastern politics in UK.
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