Egyptian Aak: Week 24. How Can Tamarod Succeed?

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A few Thoughts

How can the Rebel campaign “Tamarod” succeed?

 What will happen on June 30? Everyone who has been following Egypt has wondered about this question. There are many possible scenarios and potential outcomes. Both camps, Islamists and the opposition, are expecting violence and even civil war. Rumors are already flying about the possible arming of some opposition groups, even the involvement of the Hamas militias.

 It is pointless to predict or debate the outcome; it is better to focus on a winning strategy at this crucial juncture in the history of Egypt. June 30th is a huge opportunity that the Anti-Morsi camp cannot afford to squander.

 The formula for success should include certain ingredients that, if combined, can maximize the chances of winning a secure victory against Egypt’s currently failing leadership.

 First: Have faith

There is a skeptical mood among some activists in the social media. This is understandable and even healthy. Deposing Morsi will not be easy; he believes in his “legitimacy” as the first democratically elected leader of Egypt, and he still has core supporters who are willing to fight till the very end. However, Morsi’s “regime” is not just unpopular, it also lacks creativity. It is still playing its old, overly used populist cards: the loud nationalistic rhetoric against Ethiopia in the Islamist-organized water conference or playing pro-Syria Jihad. The latter has failed to garner more support and expand its core base, which is no more than the 25% that Morsi won in the first round of last year’s presidential election. These tactics have exposed a tense, apprehensive regime that is desperate to divert the problem, because it has no other answers or solutions. The first step against such a rattled regime is to win the battle of perception. The millions of signatures gathered by Tamarod should not just be a confidence boost, it also should reinforce the belief that the movement to depose Morsi is heading in the right direction.

 Second: Tame expectations

The planned nationwide demonstrations on June 30 as part of on-going battle aimed at draining the Brotherhood’s rule and stripping it of its remaining vestiges of legitimacy.  Any high expectations of immediate success can lead to a sharp downward spiral of pessimism and disappointment. This is a battle that will not be won by a decisive knockout, but by an overall collection of points; therefore, any attempt to repeat January 25th will be a miscalculation that may backfire. Morsi will fight and resist any demands for him to leave office. The Muslim Brotherhood did not wait 80 years to leave power after just one year. That is why the Anti-Morsi camp should aim at stirring new direction and creating new realities. It should not be just a demonstration but a start of civil disobedience, and other peaceful, lawful means sanctioned by law.

 Third: Don’t rely on third parties

Egyptians must understand that it is up to them, and not anybody else, to change or remove the current leadership. Any reliance on a possible military coup or US pressure is not just a wild gamble, it’s also a reckless and counterproductive way to defeat Islamism in Egypt. History teaches us that Islamists always thrive on victimhood; therefore, Egyptians must prevent their Islamists from using this easy winning tool that has always played wonders over the last 60 years. Foreign and military intervention will resurrect an already struggling Islamist parties that cannot even secure some of its own core supporters, and that should be avoided at any price. This is precisely why violence  must not be adopted as a strategy by the anti-Morsi rebel camp; If the Islamists adopted violence as a strategy, then let’s them drown in the blood of their victims. Therefore, if the Black bloc wants to join, they should abide by non-violent terms of conduct.

Fourth: Unite 

I know that ‘unity’ is a magical word that is rather elusive in meaning, but for now, it is a must. Egypt’s feckless opposition should understand that if it cannot contribute positively, it must at least not cause harm. Enough “secret meetings,” lousy statements, and useless suggestions; the opposition must understand their own limitations and stop being a hindrance to those amazing youths who organized the Rebel campaign. Instead, the opposition should focus on fielding a unified candidate for a possible presidential election, and provide a shadow government that is ready to rule Egypt in the case of a power vacuum.

 Fifth: Help to prevent chaos

As Islamists keep forecasting that civil war and chaos will result from the June 30 demonstrations, the Rebels should counter this ugly propaganda with a solid plan to counter any violence or collapse of law and order perpetuated by Morsi’s regime, brotherhood, or their supporters. Various teams should be allocated tasks like helping the injured, facilitating traffic, preventing a security vacuum, coping with electricity shortages, and most importantly public helplines through social media and others means. It is crucial for the wider Egyptian public to see the Rebel campaign as a multi-task movement that aims to save and not to burn the country.

 There are several scenarios, based on other countries’ experiences that many predict for Egypt. Although the risks of a possible Algerian or even Iranian (failed green revolution) scenario should not be dismissed, the chances of its occurrence in Egypt are actually very slim. Egyptian military is certainly not pr-Morsi, and there are already  many police officers who resent Morsi and his rule, however, neither the army nor the police are willing to be dragged into violent battles with Jihadis. Both will try to be professional, and secure law and order without interference in the country messy politics, which is definitely what Egypt needs. We do not need a junta or a ruthless rebound of religious authoritarianism.

Tenacity, and peaceful demonstrations are the right ingredients for a mature democracy. In many ways, Tamarod resembles the 1919 revolution. True, it is leaderless movement, we still have no equivalent of Saad Zaghloul; yet, it can set in motion a different dynamic that can potentially create a new leadership. June 30 is a great opportunity for Egypt that should not wasted.

As president Morsi marks one year in power, he should contemplate this Hadith of the Prophet: “The destruction of Ka’aba is better than spilling the blood of Muslims,” before he formulate any plan for June30.

Good Reports

  • Egypt replaces Waziristan as main training centre for militants. The Express Tribune
  • A serious of reports on looting of Egypt’s antiquities: Report 1Report 2 and  Report 3 by Betsy Hiel

Good Read

Finally, here are Jayson Casper prayers for Egypt

About nervana111

Doctor, blogger and Commentator on Middle East issues. The only practising doctor who write in Middle Eastern politics in UK.
This entry was posted in Diary of Aak, Egypt, June30 and tagged , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to Egyptian Aak: Week 24. How Can Tamarod Succeed?

  1. Ahmad says:

    We will follow. Again, thank you for this light


  2. lissnup says:

    Reblogged this on @lissnup and commented:
    June 30 is a great opportunity for Egypt that should not wasted


  3. Amr says:

    Excellent and no need for comments exept one, DO HAVE FAITH and don’t be afraid yourself Netvana, we shall win, we already won, they are gone ony their ghostly shadows remain, we know and so do they,
    Assembling terrorist Jammaa yesterday, who aren’t more than 3000 old retired killers with bug bellies was the PROOF
    Let them run at our Glorious youth
    C’est Fini
    Game Over


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